merged

covidrisk.py

@@ -16,10 +16,10 @@ def p_meet_positive_bayes(groupsize:int):
     '''
         Bayesian approach
     '''
-    n_positive_tests = 824.11 # number of positive tests in the last 14 days per 100k
-    n_tests = 6514.83         # number of tests in the last 14 days per 100k
-    n_population = 100000     # sample size (per 100k)
-    p_test_positive =  0.5    # probability of a positive person getting tested (0.5 is optimistic...)
+    n_positive_tests = 1863.6     # number of positive tests in the last 14 days
+    n_tests = 7366.1                # total number of tests in the last 14 days
+    n_population = 100000           # sample size -> per 100k for switzerland
+    p_test_positive =  0.3          # probability of a positive person getting tested (0.5 is optimistic...)
 
     p_positive_test = n_positive_tests / n_tests
     p_test = n_tests / n_population
@@ -29,14 +29,14 @@ def p_meet_positive_bayes(groupsize:int):
 
 def plot_data(data):
     plt.plot(data)
-    plt.title("probability of having a covid positive in groupsize of n")
+    plt.title("likelihood of having a covid positive in groupsize of n")
     plt.xlabel("group size / n")
     plt.ylabel("probability / %")
-    plt.grid(visible=True)
+    plt.grid(linestyle='--', linewidth='0.1')
     plt.show()
 
 data = []
-for i in range(1, 325):
+for i in range(1, 70):
     data.append(p_meet_positive_bayes(i))
     print(f'The chance of meeting a positive in a group of {i} is: {p_meet_positive_bayes(i)}%')