aaron/covidrisk
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update numbers and pipfile

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aaron
2021-11-25 15:40:37 +01:00
parent fead0429b5
commit 6dda5f9c00
2 changed files with 20 additions and 7 deletions
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12
Pipfile Normal file
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@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
[[source]]
url = "https://pypi.org/simple"
verify_ssl = true
name = "pypi"
[packages]
matplotlib = "*"
[dev-packages]
[requires]
python_version = "3.9"

15
covidrisk.py
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@@ -16,10 +16,10 @@ def p_meet_positive_bayes(groupsize:int):
''' '''
Bayesian approach Bayesian approach
''' '''
n_positive_tests = 1073.754 # number of positive tests in the last 14 days n_positive_tests = 824.11 # number of positive tests in the last 14 days per 100k
n_tests = 6316.2 # total number of tests in the last 14 days n_tests = 6514.83 # number of tests in the last 14 days per 100k
n_population = 100000 # sample size -> per 100k for switzerland n_population = 100000 # sample size (per 100k)
p_test_positive = 0.2 # probability of a positive person getting tested (0.5 is optimistic...) p_test_positive = 0.5 # probability of a positive person getting tested (0.5 is optimistic...)
p_positive_test = n_positive_tests / n_tests p_positive_test = n_positive_tests / n_tests
p_test = n_tests / n_population p_test = n_tests / n_population
@@ -29,13 +29,14 @@ def p_meet_positive_bayes(groupsize:int):
def plot_data(data): def plot_data(data):
plt.plot(data) plt.plot(data)
plt.title("probability of meeting a covid positive in groupsize of n") plt.title("probability of having a covid positive in groupsize of n")
plt.xlabel("group size / n") plt.xlabel("group size / n")
plt.ylabel("probability") plt.ylabel("probability / %")
plt.grid(visible=True)
plt.show() plt.show()
data = [] data = []
for i in range(1, 300): for i in range(1, 325):
data.append(p_meet_positive_bayes(i)) data.append(p_meet_positive_bayes(i))
print(f'The chance of meeting a positive in a group of {i} is: {p_meet_positive_bayes(i)}%') print(f'The chance of meeting a positive in a group of {i} is: {p_meet_positive_bayes(i)}%')