aaron/covidrisk
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update numbers

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aaron
2021-11-30 14:01:33 +01:00
parent fead0429b5
commit 154b193da9
1 changed files with 5 additions and 4 deletions
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covidrisk.py
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@@ -16,10 +16,10 @@ def p_meet_positive_bayes(groupsize:int):
''' '''
Bayesian approach Bayesian approach
''' '''
n_positive_tests = 1073.754 # number of positive tests in the last 14 days n_positive_tests = 1863.6 # number of positive tests in the last 14 days
n_tests = 6316.2 # total number of tests in the last 14 days n_tests = 7366.1 # total number of tests in the last 14 days
n_population = 100000 # sample size -> per 100k for switzerland n_population = 100000 # sample size -> per 100k for switzerland
p_test_positive = 0.2 # probability of a positive person getting tested (0.5 is optimistic...) p_test_positive = 0.3 # probability of a positive person getting tested (0.5 is optimistic...)
p_positive_test = n_positive_tests / n_tests p_positive_test = n_positive_tests / n_tests
p_test = n_tests / n_population p_test = n_tests / n_population
@@ -32,10 +32,11 @@ def plot_data(data):
plt.title("probability of meeting a covid positive in groupsize of n") plt.title("probability of meeting a covid positive in groupsize of n")
plt.xlabel("group size / n") plt.xlabel("group size / n")
plt.ylabel("probability") plt.ylabel("probability")
plt.grid(linestyle='--', linewidth='0.1')
plt.show() plt.show()
data = [] data = []
for i in range(1, 300): for i in range(1, 70):
data.append(p_meet_positive_bayes(i)) data.append(p_meet_positive_bayes(i))
print(f'The chance of meeting a positive in a group of {i} is: {p_meet_positive_bayes(i)}%') print(f'The chance of meeting a positive in a group of {i} is: {p_meet_positive_bayes(i)}%')